Key Findings:

• Cobalt demand:Total cobalt demand hit 276kt in 2025, up by 13% compared with 2024 and continuing the previous year’s trend of double-digit growth. Battery applications (electric vehicles, portable electronics, etc) remained the dominant driver, accounting for the majority of demand growth. Demand from defence and aerospace applications increased, reinforcing cobalt’s expanding role in national security and advanced technologies.
• Cobalt supply:Total cobalt supply was 295kt in 2025, with global mined cobalt production remaining broadly flat at 270kt. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) maintains its position as the largest producer. Its market share, however, fell from 77% in 2024 down to 73% in 2025. Indonesia – the second-largest cobalt producer – increased its share to 14% (up from 11% in 2024).

  DRC: The cobalt market in 2025 was dominated by the DRC export ban, highlighting the key role that policy intervention and geopolitical dynamics now play. DRC cobalt export ban and subsequent quota system cut global cobalt availability to 183kt.

  Indonesia: Indonesian supply in 2025 was greater than DRC exports, making it the largest effective supplier of cobalt in the market. Indonesia is expected to be the largest source of cobalt supply growth in the next five years, outpacing the DRC. On the refined side, Indonesia has overtaken Canada to become the third largest supplier of refined cobalt.

• Cobalt refining:Refined cobalt production increased modestly to 240kt (+5% y-o-y), with China maintaining its dominant position at 79% of global output.
• Cobalt recycling:Recycling and secondary supply continued to expand, contributing around 10% of total supply. Growth remains uneven across regions and constrained by limited refining capacity outside Asia. China retains a central role in processing recycled materials, reinforcing its dominance across the broader cobalt value chain.
• Cobalt prices:The impact on prices of the export ban and subsequent quota system was substantial. Cobalt hydroxide prices rose by over 300% during the year, while sulphate and metal prices increased by 266% and 130%, respectively.
• Responsible sourcing:In 2025, third‑party responsible sourcing and supply chain due diligence assessments covered 210,244 tonnes (78%) of global mined cobalt output across 180 mining and smelting assets, as well as 210,668 tonnes (88%) of global refined cobalt output from 65 refinery assets.
• Geopolitics:Geopolitics and industrial policy continued to shape the critical mineral and battery supply, characterised by a more interventionist global policy environment, a growing discussion about the need to derisk critical mineral projects through government intervention to support supply diversification, and stronger downstream and industrialisation ambitions across producing countries.
• Outlook:In 2026, supply will continue to be impacted by the DRC export quota system and is also threatened by rising sulphur and energy costs due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Indonesian producers are particularly susceptible, as 75% of sulphur within the country originates from the Middle East, passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If supply remains constrained, producers may have to cut production due to limited availability.